Dated May 1, 2026.
A. INTRODUCTION
This will be my last geopolitical paper. It will be a simple read created by reflection over my life and history and facts as evinced by the writer to provide the reader with my insights for the future and by leaving aside all of the untested propaganda directed at us by powerful people and governments who want political power today in a country, region or world.
Would world peace after WW2 be maintained subject to a few smaller wars with the establishment of the United Nations in 1944? A has it been weakened by a USA since 1944, establishing an “empire” with military bases around the world and becoming the world policeman?
I have travelled extensively to over 100 countries in my life. I am a privileged person to have had the experiences that travel has given me and an opportunity to meet so many people from different social / economic backgrounds and cultures of many countries around the world. And thanks to four (4) soccer world cups I have been able to visit and meet people in various other countries including South Africa, Russia and Brazil. And I have hiked up to Annapurna Base Camp in the Himalayas and done the Camino Walk in northern Spain and travelled extensively through both Europe and Eastern Europe and Asia. I have also lived in Hong Kong and the Cook Islands and travelled to various Pacific Island countries.
Since the United Nations was established in 1944 there have been a number of wars and conflicts between countries. The USA supported one side in internal conflicts in Korea (1950 – 1953) and in Vietnam (1964 – 1973) and in Afghanistan (1980).
The USA, with UK support, replaced a democratically elected president of Iran in 1953 with the Shah. The Shah supported the USA and sought to westernize Iranian social order until he was deposed in 1979 / 1980.
A war between Iraq and Iran followed between 1980 – 1988. America supported Iraq in this war but also provided military arms and support to Iran.
Then in 1990 – 1991 the USA fought against Iraq in response to its invasion of Kuwait (Operation Desert Shield and Desert Storm).
Then the USA invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 in response to the September 11 terrorist attack on the twin towers in New York and the Pentagon. It sought to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist network and overthrow the Taliban regime which harboured Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.
The invasion of Afghanistan was followed by a 20 year military confrontation with NATO forces that finished in 2021 with the USA removing all troops and presence in Afghanistan and handing the political power back to the Taliban.
At the same time, the USA provided direct military intervention and support to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against the Assad regime in Syria from 2014 to 2019.
Then Gaza from 7 October 2023 with Israel and finally Iran in June 2025 with an attack on its nuclear plant and subsequently war in 2026 continuing to this day.
By way of factual background, it should also be acknowledged that in July 2015, Iran signed a nuclear non-proliferation agreement via the United Nations with the P5+1 nations (China, Russia, UK, USA and France + Germany) called the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA). Trump withdrew USA support of this agreement in 2018. The agreement was for ten (10) years, restricted Iran’s nuclear programme and was overseen by the United Nations in exchange for sanctions relief.
To fully understand contemporary geopolitics, it must be understood that as the world has moved over the last 75 years to be a “one world” made possible first by flight and then by the computer and phone and video algorithms – such has significantly aided and enabled China to become a dominant economic force over the last 45 years.
China in 2026 is now placed in a position to economically take over from the USA as the world No. 1 economy.
The USA does not want to surrender its position to China. For starters, it has a current problem of $40 trillion debt.
So what is being resolved today - (Trump and the international bankers who run the world currency) – is the following:-
(i) Create world economic disorder and disrupt supply chains and hence increase inflation;
(ii) Impose tariffs on countries trading with the USA across the world and thereby increase inflation;
(iii) Create a war with Iran in the Middle East and restrict oil to China and increase the price of oil and hence inflation;
(iv) And very soon, with or without USA legislation, “tokenise” the world and in doing so play the “final card” in its hand to increase liquidity of its monetary system and by doing so, increase inflation and thereby reduce its debt in real terms.
Many people I have met over my time in my travels, consider America to be “imperialist”. It was the word regularly heard by me to describe American foreign policy.
America established military control around the world by the end of the 1950s via military bases.
After the Gulf War of 1990 – 1991, Middle Eastern Islamic terrorist groups formed for three reasons:-
(i) The many military bases America established in the Middle East and a Middle Eastern belief America was “imperialist”;
(ii) The excessive use of weaponry and force used by America in the Gulf War in 1990 / 1991 and the Iraq / Iran war of 1980 – 1988; and
(iii) The continuous “expansionist” foreign policy of Israel since the mid-60s.
After WW2, America established good and strong relations with both Saudia Arabia and Iran.
Following WW2, Iran transitioned from Allied occupation (1941 – 1946) to a democratically elected government and then to an autocratic monarchy (the Shah of Iran) supported by a 1953 USA / UK backed coup.
The Shah of Iran was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution due, inter alia, to widespread discontent with his autocratic rule, forced rapid westernization and perceived dependence on and support for the USA.
Fuelled by economic inequality, corruption and brutality of its secret police, a broad group of religious, secular and student groups led by Ayatollah Khomeini united to replace the monarchy with an Islamic Republic.
At the same time, Lebanon had a civil war(1975 – 1990) which created Hezbollah in 1982.
Yemen has been in civil war since 1994, when the Shia led Houthi movement was established in Yemen to oppose the Yemeni government.
Then the Gaza War in October 2023. Hamas – a Sunni extreme Islamic group founded in 1987 and the ruler of Palestine Gaza since 2006 attacked Israel on 7 October 2023. That attack was unjustified and horrible in every sense of the word.
Israel, supported by the USA, then attacked Gaza and Hamas and effectively totally destroyed Gaza and displaced its entire population.
Now as I write this paper, the USA, supported by Israel, has attacked Iran since 28 February 2026 and Israel has also commenced war in southern Lebanon against the Shia led Islamist extremist group Hezbollah.
Like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and the Houthi in Yemen are all supported by Iran.
The above are the relevant historical facts to determine the future.
B. THE FUTURE - PART 1
The objective of the world must be:-
To establish a peaceful political, economic and social world order.
It is done as follows:
(i) The United Nations is reconstructed and reconfigured and becomes the sole entity that resolves any dispute between one or more countries.
(ii) Each country has an equal vote and a new Constitution is drawn which replaces the Security Council with an executive which acts with authority of fellow member countries in respect to day-to-day matters before it at any time.
(iii) Fundamental to the Constitution is an acknowledgment / agreement by all member countries of different political systems and religions and cultures.
It is so simple – the Russian people and the Chinese people are no different from the American people or the British people.
The Founding Fathers of the United Nations obviously had the same mindset as me.
But weak leadership within the United Nations over many years and the strong desire by successive American governments (especially after WW2 and the President Rosevelt era) to become the new world political power produced the result we have today with the effective support of media and propaganda.
America has established hundreds of military bases around the world and has created an empire and become the political power of the world.
The political power ran parallel with the transition of the USA becoming the world No. 1 reserve currency from the UK after WW2 put Britain into massive debt.
The Bretton Woods accord in 1944 acknowledged the US$ backed by gold at US$35 per ounce as the No. 1 currency in the world. It was accepted by 44 allied countries as the No. 1 currency in the world and the creator of a new global monetary order which “pegged” various other currencies to the US$ for exchange rate stability.
All was good in the first 25 years. It was then followed in 1971 by US$ detachment from gold and the discovery of oil.
America, being the world military and financial power, provided the Middle East countries with technical skills, personnel and equipment to locate and extract the oil. No doubt the commercial deals would have been in order for all parties initially. But like so many things and for so many people, “simple greed” takes over.
And the commercial oil agreements in 1973 / 1974 were varied to satisfy the politics and the “Petro Dollar” was established as “win/win” for both parties. (America and the Middle Eastern countries who had oil reserves.) America would buy the oil, priced and sold in US$ from OPEC (the Middle Eastern oil rich countries) which would be recycled and the money used to buy American Bonds and other American securities. This simple arrangement provided strength to the US$ and low interest rates ensured stability until the first oil crisis in 1974.
From the 1970s to 1990s, American strength via its military and financial institutions was at its peak. But it created a small group of people who perceived America as being “too aggressive”, “too greedy”, “too powerful”, and “unfriendly”.
So, in time a simple philosophy that “you cannot be friends with everybody” – distrust and conflict evolved with small groups of people in the Middle East in respect to America and Israel and how both operated. They were perceived as being “imperialist” and “expansionist”.
To me that means being “greedy” and seeking more than the other party thought was fair!!. This perception was created / enhanced in the Iraq / Iran war between 1980 – 1988 when America, while remaining neutral, provided significant intelligence, economic aid and technology to Iraq to support Saddam Hussein against Iran. But while backing Iraq, the US simultaneously secretly sold weapons to Iran in the “Iran Contra affair”. Simply put, America armed both sides at different times for money and profit (just as the USA did leading up to WW2). And since the 1960s Israel has politically sought to expand its presence in the Middle East for “greed” or for “security”? It matters not which or to what degree – it simply happened that way.
Then the Gulf War of 1990 / 1991 followed. It was an armed conflict between Iraq and a 35-country coalition formed by the United Nations and led by the USA. (2/8/1990 – 28/2/1991). The war was in response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
Then Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda air attack on New York (World Trade Twin Towers and the Pentagon) on 11 September 2001.
Then followed the Afghanistan War, which began on 7 October 2002, being a “war on terror”, targeting Al-Qaeda and the ruling Taliban regime (2001 – 2021).
And then the Iraq War (2003 – 2011) where the US expanded the war on terror to Iraq, saying Iraq and Saddam Hussein had “weapons of mass destruction” and its regime was connected to terrorism. In the end the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021 and the Iraq government continued, less Saddam Hussein, in Iraq.
Then in 2021 the US, under the Trump administration, announced Iran had been supporting Al-Qaeda personnel since 2015 in Iran (specifically made in a speech by Michael Pompeo, then Secretary of State, speaking at a National Press Club in America). It was stated that Al-Qaeda operates under the shell of Iranian government protection and operatives today are known within or as part of the Houthi regime supported by Iran. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza / Palestine are also terrorist groups established to destroy American Jewish ideology and which are also financed by Iran.
The Abraham Accords were signed on 15 September 2020 under the Trump administration. These accords were a series of agreements between Israel and several Arab states (specifically the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco), brokered by the USA. Their objective was to enhance regional security, trade and economic co-operation between Israel and the UAE.
But such excluded Iran and Middle Eastern countries sympathetic to Iran:-
• Iran
• Iraq
• Lebanon
• Palestine / Gaza
• Syria
• Yemen
• Somalia
And neutral Middle Eastern countries:
• Jordan
• Oman
• Qatar
• Kuwait
• Libya
• Egypt
• Saudi Arabia
On 7 October 2023 Hamas attacked Israel and the Gaza War followed and continues today.
On 28 February 2026, USA and Israel attacked Iran. This war continues to this day.
The above are the historical facts that have led to the Middle East crisis today.
Alongside is the war between Russia and Ukraine following an attack by Russia on Ukraine in February 2022. The basis of this war comes down to a difference of view / or application of the 1991 Soviet Union agreement to dissolve into 16 member countries and declare their autonomy and independence. The formal dissolution of the Soviet Union occurred on 26 December 1991. Russia says that NATO agreed to not advance its membership beyond the “existing line”, whatever that means. And while NATO may well have agreed, in the end it was a decision not made by NATO but by individual sovereign states. NATO and the West do not agree on the “same existing lines” as Russia – as simple as that.
C. THE FUTURE – PART 2
So, what should be done today to provide for a stable future for the people of the world tomorrow?
1. (i) Reconstruct the United Nations with a new Constitution / Charter which acknowledges all political systems and religions and cultures;
(ii) It becomes the “policeman” of the world and the USA “takes a back seat in the car”, just like everyone else;
(iii) The United Nations establishes its own army, navy and air force;
(iv) The United Nations is chartered to resolve “in final form” any disputes that extend beyond one country;
(v) The United Nations eventually will determine, issue and manage the “world reserve currency” in place of the USA today and the USA, BRICS and the EU from 2027; and
(vi) The United Nations will become the world arbitrator and facilitator of all world aid and emergency assistance to countries as and when needed or as determined by the United Nations.
2. NATO is abolished. This will be the basis of a peace deal in the Russia / Ukraine war.
3. The USA military bases in the Middle East need to be abandoned by the USA. That departure from the Middle East of these bases will form the basis of a settlement of the Iran / Israel / USA conflict.
4. Iran will honour an agreement not to advance its nuclear programme towards any military development of nuclear warfare. This was made first in 2015 for 10 years and then torn up by Trump in 2018. So likely the time will extend to 20 years. Furthermore, it will be responsible for sourcing and educating certain extremist groups (overseen by the United Nations) to co-operate and work with the Iranian government to establish a unified and powerful energy and technological industry and tolerate USA and Israel culture.
5. Israel, Russia and China agree to accept territorial sovereignty as exist today and to not advance or pursue advancement over any other territory in the world in the future.
6. By United Nations world agreement, the only countries with authority to develop nuclear energy do so in conjunction and co-operation with each other. Those countries are the USA, UK, France, China, Russia and North Korea. Pakistan, India, Israel and Iran are to be determined by United Nations future agreement.
7. China should agree to continue to use its international surplus to fund infrastructure aid in underdeveloped countries as currently being undertaken. This should be done over 30 / 40 year periods rather than 10 year periods or preferably as gifts and not loans to show China’s commitment and desire to improve quality of life around the world as a world leader, not just to people living in China.
8. A “one world” will be established which under the restructured United Nations will control the political, financial and social world orders as it deems reasonable and proper for all peoples of the world pursuant to the Plato “public good”. A “one world” will save the human race from an apocalyptic war where the winner will take all and the loser will be exterminated. Start thinking consensus and peace and not conflict and war.
Good luck and good health and happiness to all readers.